鉴于未来两年来自运费和船队的持续增长压力将越来越大，国际航运研究及咨询机构德鲁里（Drewry）认为，至明年下半年，运费才能得以逐步复苏。
2017年，LNG船队预计将增长约13%，鉴于此强劲的增长态势，德鲁里对2017年的LNG航运运费前景预期仍持看跌立场。
尽管运费自年初以来一直在下跌，但波动的运费至今仍在德鲁里的预期范围内。目前，苏伊士以东地区的双燃料电力推进（DFDE）船舶的即期费率约为2.6万美元每天，较今年年初的3.7万美元每天下降了30%。
德鲁里首席LNG航运分析师Shresth Sharma表示：“最近观察到货运市场凸显出来的最大劣势是供给充足。我们预测这两年船队将保持积极增长态势，至2018年预计将进一步扩大9%，促使运费的疲软将延续至明年。因此，至2018年底之前，我们都别期望运费会有所复苏。”
Sharma表示,“因此，我们下调了LNG船在2018年平均即期运费的预期，从之前预计的5万美元每天调低至4万美元每天。”。
原文如下：
Given the mounting pressure on freight rates and continuing fleet growth over the next two years,Drewry believes that excess vessel supply will reduce only gradually with the recovery in rates pushed back to the latter part of next year,according to the latest edition of the LNG Forecaster report published by global shipping consultancy Drewry.
Drewry maintains a bearish stance on the LNG shipping freight rate outlook for 2017 on account of strong fleet growth which is expected to be around 13%.The movement in rates has so far been in line with Drewry’s expectations,as rates have been falling since the beginning of year.The spot rate for dual-fuel diesel-electric(DFDE)vessels(East of Suez)is currently around$26,000 per day,compared to$37,000 per day in the beginning of the year,a fall of 30%.
“The tremendous weakness observed recently in the freight market highlights the ample vessel supply.We are anticipating two years of aggressive fleet growth with supply expected to expand a further 9%in 2018 which will extend the period of weak freight rate development into next year.Therefore,we do not expect rates to start recovering until the end of 2018 when several new LNG trains from the US are expected to be operating at full capacity,”said Shresth Sharma,Drewry’s lead LNG shipping analyst.“As a result,we have trimmed down our forecast for average spot freight rates in 2018 to$40,000pd from the earlier expectation of$50,000pd,”added Sharma.
